MacroWatch
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NVDA

NVIDIA

stock · USD · Alpha Vantage EOD

200.75 USD +2.93% Last update 2026-07-31
Open198.44
High202.00
Low194.95
Previous close195.04
Volume139,961,152
Volatility+41.7%
01
Plain-language reading

Understand the situation before the technical details

What is happening now Observed from current data

The price is not showing a clear direction now

The price is moving inside a range rather than following a strong trend.

TrendNeutral
RegimeRange
RiskHigh
Volatility+0.4%
What MacroWatch estimates next 7 days

The balance currently leans upward

Over the selected period, the model currently gives more weight to an upward move than to a downward move. Risk is high, which means the result can change quickly and the possible range is wide. The signals agree reasonably well, but this remains a probability, not a certainty.

Probable range 180.30 — 224.78 USD
Confidence 77%
See why MacroWatch reached this view ↓
How should a non-specialist read this?

A positive outlook does not mean “buy”, and a cautious outlook does not mean “sell”. It means the current data gives one direction more weight than the other. Open the details to see the risks, uncertainty and factors behind it.

02
Probabilistic analysis

Forecast details, probabilities and uncertainty

7D 30D 90D
Expected range 180.30 — 224.78 USD · 7 days
180.30 201.57 224.78
Adverse scenario 36% 180.30 — 192.34
Central scenario 18% 192.34 — 210.81
Favourable scenario 46% 210.81 — 224.78
03
Market history

Price, range and source data

1M 3M 6M 1Y ALL
Date Open High Low Close Change Volume
2026-07-31 198.44 202.00 194.95 200.75 — 139,961,152
2026-07-30 193.45 197.25 191.52 195.04 -2.84% 129,010,151
2026-07-29 195.85 197.07 190.01 190.01 -2.58% 147,680,809
2026-07-28 195.00 198.70 192.74 197.01 +3.68% 134,111,494
2026-07-27 208.20 208.75 195.44 196.51 -0.25% 154,353,698
2026-07-24 207.45 211.91 204.81 206.84 +5.26% 114,836,805
2026-07-23 209.46 210.87 205.96 208.76 +0.93% 110,505,328
2026-07-22 205.81 214.39 204.95 212.06 +1.58% 137,645,596
2026-07-21 207.54 208.65 204.01 207.29 -2.25% 108,685,563
2026-07-20 205.87 207.74 202.28 203.28 -1.93% 88,701,540
2026-07-17 202.64 206.65 197.97 202.81 -0.23% 144,281,910
2026-07-16 210.17 211.08 205.85 207.40 +2.26% 122,986,074
2026-07-15 211.96 213.81 206.04 212.50 +2.46% 124,797,151
2026-07-14 208.20 212.55 203.80 211.80 -0.33% 124,379,646
2026-07-13 208.54 210.57 203.00 203.53 -3.90% 121,411,018
2026-07-10 202.00 211.00 201.92 210.96 +3.65% 148,421,001
2026-07-09 204.46 204.59 198.96 202.78 -3.88% 132,037,359
2026-07-08 195.18 205.16 195.06 204.12 +0.66% 147,419,133
2026-07-07 192.37 198.41 191.14 196.93 -3.52% 124,154,574
2026-07-06 194.42 197.55 193.99 195.55 -0.70% 108,999,015
2026-07-02 197.14 200.06 192.35 194.83 -0.37% 142,385,548
2026-07-01 196.20 199.85 193.45 197.58 +1.41% 146,147,597
2026-06-30 197.24 200.63 195.11 200.09 +1.27% 166,476,665
2026-06-29 193.85 196.18 189.80 194.97 -2.56% 148,835,724
2026-06-26 193.12 195.55 191.22 192.53 -1.25% 179,304,147
2026-06-25 200.08 200.80 192.13 195.74 +1.67% 150,205,647
2026-06-24 200.12 201.67 196.58 199.00 +1.67% 151,810,704
2026-06-23 202.17 203.77 200.00 200.04 +0.52% 153,496,196
2026-06-22 211.44 213.99 207.72 208.65 +4.30% 122,041,419
2026-06-18 207.33 211.39 206.50 210.69 +0.98% 241,272,013
2026-06-17 208.53 209.21 203.08 204.65 -2.87% 128,363,473
2026-06-16 211.18 211.49 207.29 207.41 +1.35% 125,694,100
2026-06-15 208.92 212.71 208.34 212.45 +2.43% 149,936,688
2026-06-12 204.86 207.07 203.44 205.19 -3.42% 112,345,314
2026-06-11 201.49 205.66 199.54 204.87 -0.16% 158,643,204
2026-06-10 204.43 207.22 199.92 200.42 -2.17% 161,746,587
2026-06-09 210.62 211.40 199.34 208.19 +3.88% 180,962,450
2026-06-08 210.18 210.47 206.00 208.64 +0.22% 138,372,837
2026-06-05 214.53 214.87 204.33 205.10 -1.70% 219,655,531
2026-06-04 213.91 221.60 210.97 218.66 +6.61% 169,022,152
2026-06-03 221.72 222.82 214.51 214.75 -1.79% 160,907,001
2026-06-02 227.18 232.28 221.35 222.82 +3.76% 193,362,903
2026-06-01 215.73 224.87 215.70 224.36 +0.69% 212,850,685
2026-05-29 214.58 217.86 211.13 211.14 -5.89% 289,410,623
2026-05-28 211.28 215.52 211.22 214.25 +1.47% 143,996,048
2026-05-27 214.12 214.15 208.78 212.60 -0.77% 167,601,172
2026-05-26 216.54 218.18 212.00 214.86 +1.06% 187,202,576
2026-05-22 220.90 221.01 214.80 215.33 +0.22% 169,275,710
2026-05-21 222.29 227.40 217.93 219.51 +1.94% 203,381,760
2026-05-20 223.18 226.13 220.50 223.47 +1.80% 162,279,171
2026-05-19 219.62 224.48 217.91 220.61 -1.28% 140,948,207
2026-05-18 229.87 230.00 218.37 222.32 +0.78% 146,280,896
2026-05-15 229.76 231.50 224.24 225.32 +1.35% 180,977,639
2026-05-14 229.85 236.54 229.30 235.74 +4.62% 180,782,857
2026-05-13 224.93 227.84 221.57 225.83 -4.20% 150,405,386
2026-05-12 218.55 223.75 214.92 220.78 -2.24% 159,176,619
2026-05-11 214.04 222.30 213.89 219.44 -0.61% 160,685,774
2026-05-08 213.03 217.80 212.89 215.20 -1.93% 136,421,361
2026-05-07 208.34 214.20 206.50 211.50 -1.72% 168,307,873
2026-05-06 199.89 208.27 198.61 207.83 -1.74% 188,362,812
2026-05-05 199.30 200.24 196.03 196.50 -5.45% 113,406,620
2026-05-04 199.50 201.73 194.74 198.48 +1.01% 125,368,092
2026-05-01 201.28 203.00 197.12 198.45 -0.02% 128,646,996
2026-04-30 209.93 210.30 198.70 199.57 +0.56% 225,239,156
2026-04-29 212.70 212.72 207.58 209.25 +4.85% 123,711,821
2026-04-28 209.49 214.73 208.20 213.17 +1.87% 180,275,363
2026-04-27 209.65 216.83 207.38 216.61 +1.61% 187,172,421
2026-04-24 199.96 210.95 199.81 208.27 -3.85% 214,134,441
2026-04-23 202.46 203.83 197.22 199.64 -4.14% 113,561,830
2026-04-22 200.99 202.50 199.00 202.50 +1.43% 107,501,042
2026-04-21 202.13 202.75 199.00 199.88 -1.29% 107,945,302
2026-04-20 199.98 202.17 197.84 202.06 +1.09% 119,381,388
2026-04-17 199.90 201.70 199.27 201.68 -0.19% 160,324,416
2026-04-16 197.43 199.85 195.81 198.35 -1.65% 134,012,859
2026-04-15 196.54 200.40 195.74 198.87 +0.26% 185,338,388
2026-04-14 190.84 196.51 190.77 196.51 -1.19% 161,307,010
2026-04-13 186.03 189.66 185.74 189.31 -3.66% 133,648,180
2026-04-10 184.31 190.00 184.30 188.63 -0.36% 160,459,524
2026-04-09 181.84 184.08 180.62 183.91 -2.50% 116,428,523
2026-04-08 184.50 185.26 180.30 182.08 -1.00% 147,732,686
2026-04-07 175.73 178.23 173.66 178.10 -2.19% 132,534,902
2026-04-06 177.16 177.79 175.76 177.64 -0.26% 107,564,279
2026-04-02 172.18 177.49 171.37 177.39 -0.14% 143,143,157
2026-04-01 176.00 177.37 174.75 175.75 -0.92% 168,132,005
2026-03-31 166.97 174.62 166.96 174.40 -0.77% 226,181,301
2026-03-30 168.78 169.45 164.27 165.17 -5.29% 185,626,992
2026-03-27 170.00 170.97 167.01 167.52 +1.42% 196,212,684
2026-03-26 176.07 176.51 171.14 171.24 +2.22% 186,152,232
2026-03-25 177.10 181.22 176.85 178.68 +4.34% 162,602,054
2026-03-24 174.83 176.22 173.98 175.20 -1.95% 147,667,844
2026-03-23 177.26 178.37 174.76 175.64 +0.25% 182,836,294
2026-03-20 178.00 178.26 171.72 172.70 -1.67% 241,323,528
2026-03-19 178.01 179.98 175.79 178.56 +3.39% 170,968,527
2026-03-18 182.48 183.38 180.33 180.40 +1.03% 156,683,136
2026-03-17 185.06 185.40 181.68 181.93 +0.85% 182,497,757
2026-03-16 182.97 188.88 181.41 183.22 +0.71% 217,307,380
2026-03-13 184.92 186.09 179.94 180.25 -1.62% 160,988,424
2026-03-12 184.05 184.94 181.75 183.14 +1.60% 155,762,663
2026-03-11 185.91 187.62 184.45 186.03 +1.58% 145,280,386
2026-03-10 182.40 186.44 182.01 184.77 -0.68% 179,118,528
04
Explainability

Why the model sees this scenario

Macroeconomic context

Federal Funds Effective Rate 2026-08-01
+0.4
India: Unemployment rate 2025-01-01
+0.3
China: IMF real GDP growth outlook 2031-01-01
-0.1
Japan: IMF inflation outlook 2031-01-01
0.0

Company fundamentals

Annual revenue growth
+1.8
Annual revenue growth
+1.8
Annual revenue growth
+1.8
Annual revenue growth
+1.8
Annual revenue growth
+1.8
Annual revenue growth
+1.8
Annual revenue growth
+1.8
Annual revenue growth
+1.8
Annual revenue growth
+1.8
Annual revenue growth
+1.8
Annual revenue growth
+1.8
Annual revenue growth
+1.8
View technical methodology
Model
MacroWatch Distribution & Regime Model v1.7.0
Sample size
99
Annualized volatility
+0.4%
Maximum drawdown
-0.2%
Daily VaR 95%
0.0%
Expected shortfall 95%
-0.1%
Directional accuracy
—
Interval coverage
—
05
Connected intelligence

What affects this entity — and what it can affect

represented_by_asset NVIDIA CORP Strength 100/100
06
Intelligence

Recent events and intelligence

technology Nvidia ( NVDA ) Uses Own Chips for Design , While AMD ( AMD ) Relies on Rivals insidermonkey.com · 2026-08-03 19:30:00+02
44/100 Confidence 53%
technology Jensen Huang Construction Careers Forecast : Nvidia CEO Predicts Six - Figure AI Infrastructure Jobs ibtimes.co.uk · 2026-08-02 16:45:00+02
44/100 Confidence 53%
general Nvidia ( NVDA ) Teams Up With Kawasaki To Build AI Powered Shipyard Robots finance.yahoo.com · 2026-08-02 07:00:00+02
37/100 Confidence 53%
company Taiwan Semiconductor Just Reclaimed a $2 Trillion Market Cap . It Still Trades at About 20 Times Forward Earnings . finance.yahoo.com · 2026-08-03 16:15:00+02
47/100 Confidence 53%
technology Asian Stocks Are Down 10 % From June Highs . That Could Be Bad News for This Semiconductor Index . fool.com · 2026-08-03 20:15:00+02
39/100 Confidence 53%
technology Semiconductor stocks pare losses amid fears of increased competition from China finance.yahoo.com · 2026-08-03 19:15:00+02
39/100 Confidence 49%
technology AI Infrastructure Race Intensifies : Nvidia - SK Group $500 bn Initiative , Microsoft $175 bn Capex and Meta $145 bn AI Spending Reshape Global Tech infotechlead.com · 2026-08-03 19:15:00+02
39/100 Confidence 49%
technology Asian Stocks Are Down 10 % From June Highs . That Could Be Bad News for This Semiconductor Index . finance.yahoo.com · 2026-08-03 16:15:00+02
39/100 Confidence 53%
growth Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited ( TSM ): An Unmatched Technological Lead in Semiconductors finance.yahoo.com · 2026-08-03 14:45:00+02
39/100 Confidence 49%
technology Semiconductor Sell - Off : 1 Chip Stock to Buy , 1 to Hold , and 1 to Sell finance.yahoo.com · 2026-08-02 19:45:00+02
39/100 Confidence 49%
general NVIDIA Stock Reverses Early Loss and Jumps 3 . 1 % finance.yahoo.com · 2026-08-03 21:00:00+02
32/100 Confidence 49%
general Jensen Huang Says the Chip Industry Usual Boom - Bust Cycle Wont Hit for a While , a Bullish Signal for AI Stocks fool.com · 2026-08-02 16:15:00+02
32/100 Confidence 49%

Probabilistic research output based on historical data. It is not investment advice, a promise of performance or a trading instruction.