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Bitcoin / US Dollar

crypto · USD · CoinGecko Crypto Market

85,156.30 USD +1.89% Last update 2026-10-02
Open—
High—
Low—
Previous close83,576.13
Volume33,862,979,105
Volatility+34.7%
01
Plain-language reading

Understand the situation before the technical details

What is happening now Observed from current data

The recent movement is currently positive

Positive Trend

TrendPositive
RegimePositive trend
RiskVery high
Volatility+0.3%
What MacroWatch estimates next 7 days

The balance currently leans downward

Over the selected period, the model currently gives more weight to a downward move than to an upward move. Risk is high, which means the result can change quickly and the possible range is wide. The signals agree reasonably well, but this remains a probability, not a certainty.

Probable range 77,377.86 — 93,640.59 USD
Confidence 95%
See why MacroWatch reached this view ↓
How should a non-specialist read this?

A positive outlook does not mean “buy”, and a cautious outlook does not mean “sell”. It means the current data gives one direction more weight than the other. Open the details to see the risks, uncertainty and factors behind it.

02
Probabilistic analysis

Forecast details, probabilities and uncertainty

Expected range 77,377.86 — 93,640.59 USD · 7 days
77,377.86 85,071.81 93,640.59
Adverse scenario 40% 77,377.86 — 82,011.77
Central scenario 21% 82,011.77 — 88,131.84
Favourable scenario 39% 88,131.84 — 93,640.59
03
Market history

Price, range and source data

1M 3M 6M 1Y ALL
Date Open High Low Close Change Volume
2026-10-02 — — — 85,156.30 — 33,862,979,105
2026-10-01 — — — 83,576.13 -1.86% 35,066,512,390
2026-09-30 — — — 83,640.10 +0.08% 29,007,802,596
2026-09-29 — — — 83,479.25 -0.19% 41,541,721,155
2026-09-28 — — — 84,448.75 +1.16% 21,929,060,308
2026-09-27 — — — 84,416.71 -0.04% 18,033,182,350
2026-09-26 — — — 84,075.72 -0.40% 35,904,911,385
2026-09-25 — — — 84,377.97 +0.36% 38,044,738,930
2026-09-24 — — — 84,382.40 +0.01% 43,737,548,353
2026-09-23 — — — 86,183.29 +2.13% 43,496,653,160
2026-09-22 — — — 86,596.74 +0.48% 61,251,744,760
2026-09-21 — — — 81,169.04 -6.27% 23,789,617,808
2026-09-20 — — — 81,236.41 +0.08% 24,055,616,823
2026-09-19 — — — 80,873.58 -0.45% 44,737,458,821
2026-09-18 — — — 76,371.36 -5.57% 23,628,097,103
2026-09-17 — — — 76,146.81 -0.29% 30,782,581,512
2026-09-16 — — — 75,590.24 -0.73% 39,803,154,169
2026-09-15 — — — 78,173.35 +3.42% 32,369,566,521
2026-09-14 — — — 76,819.04 -1.73% 16,138,951,581
2026-09-13 — — — 77,261.63 +0.58% 15,195,615,507
2026-09-12 — — — 77,203.53 -0.08% 35,407,367,571
2026-09-11 — — — 76,554.99 -0.84% 30,257,901,048
2026-09-10 — — — 78,283.06 +2.26% 34,938,279,859
2026-09-09 — — — 78,450.75 +0.21% 36,832,978,946
2026-09-08 — — — 79,093.46 +0.82% 23,156,361,224
2026-09-07 — — — 80,329.35 +1.56% 19,671,698,954
2026-09-06 — — — 79,821.70 -0.63% 18,822,345,309
2026-09-05 — — — 79,671.26 -0.19% 35,605,666,977
2026-09-04 — — — 81,264.70 +2.00% 39,842,820,912
2026-09-03 — — — 77,297.13 -4.88% 26,617,233,991
2026-09-02 — — — 77,416.44 +0.15% 30,118,812,390
2026-09-01 — — — 78,552.78 +1.47% 29,723,745,445
2026-08-31 — — — 77,658.23 -1.14% 18,928,816,149
2026-08-30 — — — 78,225.14 +0.73% 15,083,877,887
2026-08-29 — — — 77,820.76 -0.52% 36,320,805,552
2026-08-28 — — — 80,268.37 +3.15% 33,271,382,526
2026-08-27 — — — 79,018.03 -1.56% 28,508,064,829
2026-08-26 — — — 78,511.23 -0.64% 42,844,457,203
2026-08-25 — — — 78,973.89 +0.59% 51,335,516,519
2026-08-24 — — — 77,712.32 -1.60% 29,643,785,729
04
Explainability

Why the model sees this scenario

Macroeconomic context

Federal Funds Effective Rate 2026-09-01
+0.2
Japan: IMF inflation outlook 2031-01-01
0.0

Company fundamentals

The structure is active and will fill progressively as validated sources become available.
View technical methodology
Model
MacroWatch Distribution & Regime Model v1.7.0
Sample size
563
Annualized volatility
+0.3%
Maximum drawdown
-0.5%
Daily VaR 95%
0.0%
Expected shortfall 95%
0.0%
Directional accuracy
42.3%
Interval coverage
76.9%
05
Connected intelligence

What affects this entity — and what it can affect

Connections are still being built

The structure is active and will fill progressively as validated sources become available.

06
Intelligence

Recent events and intelligence

No recent intelligence has been linked to this asset.

Probabilistic research output based on historical data. It is not investment advice, a promise of performance or a trading instruction.