Search / Market
bitcoin

Bitcoin / US Dollar

crypto · USD · CoinGecko Crypto Market

85,156.30 USD +1.89% Last update 2026-10-02
Open—
High—
Low—
Previous close83,576.13
Volume33,862,979,105
Volatility+34.7%
01
Plain-language reading

Understand the situation before the technical details

What is happening now Observed from current data

The recent movement is currently positive

Positive Trend

TrendPositive
RegimePositive trend
RiskVery high
Volatility+0.3%
What MacroWatch estimates next 7 days

The balance currently leans downward

Over the selected period, the model currently gives more weight to a downward move than to an upward move. Risk is high, which means the result can change quickly and the possible range is wide. The signals agree reasonably well, but this remains a probability, not a certainty.

Probable range 77,377.86 — 93,640.59 USD
Confidence 95%
See why MacroWatch reached this view ↓
How should a non-specialist read this?

A positive outlook does not mean “buy”, and a cautious outlook does not mean “sell”. It means the current data gives one direction more weight than the other. Open the details to see the risks, uncertainty and factors behind it.

02
Probabilistic analysis

Forecast details, probabilities and uncertainty

Expected range 77,377.86 — 93,640.59 USD · 7 days
77,377.86 85,071.81 93,640.59
Adverse scenario 40% 77,377.86 — 82,011.77
Central scenario 21% 82,011.77 — 88,131.84
Favourable scenario 39% 88,131.84 — 93,640.59
03
Market history

Price, range and source data

1M 3M 6M 1Y ALL
Date Open High Low Close Change Volume
2026-10-02 — — — 85,156.30 — 33,862,979,105
2026-10-01 — — — 83,576.13 -1.86% 35,066,512,390
2026-09-30 — — — 83,640.10 +0.08% 29,007,802,596
2026-09-29 — — — 83,479.25 -0.19% 41,541,721,155
2026-09-28 — — — 84,448.75 +1.16% 21,929,060,308
2026-09-27 — — — 84,416.71 -0.04% 18,033,182,350
2026-09-26 — — — 84,075.72 -0.40% 35,904,911,385
2026-09-25 — — — 84,377.97 +0.36% 38,044,738,930
2026-09-24 — — — 84,382.40 +0.01% 43,737,548,353
2026-09-23 — — — 86,183.29 +2.13% 43,496,653,160
2026-09-22 — — — 86,596.74 +0.48% 61,251,744,760
2026-09-21 — — — 81,169.04 -6.27% 23,789,617,808
2026-09-20 — — — 81,236.41 +0.08% 24,055,616,823
2026-09-19 — — — 80,873.58 -0.45% 44,737,458,821
2026-09-18 — — — 76,371.36 -5.57% 23,628,097,103
2026-09-17 — — — 76,146.81 -0.29% 30,782,581,512
2026-09-16 — — — 75,590.24 -0.73% 39,803,154,169
2026-09-15 — — — 78,173.35 +3.42% 32,369,566,521
2026-09-14 — — — 76,819.04 -1.73% 16,138,951,581
2026-09-13 — — — 77,261.63 +0.58% 15,195,615,507
2026-09-12 — — — 77,203.53 -0.08% 35,407,367,571
2026-09-11 — — — 76,554.99 -0.84% 30,257,901,048
2026-09-10 — — — 78,283.06 +2.26% 34,938,279,859
2026-09-09 — — — 78,450.75 +0.21% 36,832,978,946
2026-09-08 — — — 79,093.46 +0.82% 23,156,361,224
2026-09-07 — — — 80,329.35 +1.56% 19,671,698,954
2026-09-06 — — — 79,821.70 -0.63% 18,822,345,309
2026-09-05 — — — 79,671.26 -0.19% 35,605,666,977
2026-09-04 — — — 81,264.70 +2.00% 39,842,820,912
2026-09-03 — — — 77,297.13 -4.88% 26,617,233,991
2026-09-02 — — — 77,416.44 +0.15% 30,118,812,390
2026-09-01 — — — 78,552.78 +1.47% 29,723,745,445
2026-08-31 — — — 77,658.23 -1.14% 18,928,816,149
2026-08-30 — — — 78,225.14 +0.73% 15,083,877,887
2026-08-29 — — — 77,820.76 -0.52% 36,320,805,552
2026-08-28 — — — 80,268.37 +3.15% 33,271,382,526
2026-08-27 — — — 79,018.03 -1.56% 28,508,064,829
2026-08-26 — — — 78,511.23 -0.64% 42,844,457,203
2026-08-25 — — — 78,973.89 +0.59% 51,335,516,519
2026-08-24 — — — 77,712.32 -1.60% 29,643,785,729
2026-08-23 — — — 77,081.02 -0.81% 36,689,774,597
2026-08-22 — — — 78,317.78 +1.60% 71,451,157,995
2026-08-21 — — — 73,020.95 -6.76% 54,562,051,680
2026-08-20 — — — 69,291.01 -5.11% 43,990,704,909
2026-08-19 — — — 64,686.26 -6.65% 18,173,594,958
2026-08-18 — — — 64,491.35 -0.30% 21,603,650,492
2026-08-17 — — — 62,843.70 -2.55% 9,661,851,537
2026-08-16 — — — 63,031.05 +0.30% 10,409,218,158
2026-08-15 — — — 62,984.29 -0.07% 20,141,227,881
2026-08-14 — — — 63,429.18 +0.71% 18,868,048,226
2026-08-13 — — — 63,408.63 -0.03% 22,071,166,502
2026-08-12 — — — 63,537.56 +0.20% 20,095,612,609
2026-08-11 — — — 63,915.71 +0.60% 20,628,873,466
2026-08-10 — — — 64,856.10 +1.47% 12,957,668,413
2026-08-09 — — — 64,917.24 +0.09% 12,399,729,091
2026-08-08 — — — 64,879.76 -0.06% 21,708,815,799
2026-08-07 — — — 64,262.75 -0.95% 18,543,020,925
2026-08-06 — — — 64,608.71 +0.54% 23,456,084,572
2026-08-05 — — — 64,062.17 -0.85% 22,979,346,233
2026-08-04 — — — 63,465.20 -0.93% 25,488,990,097
2026-08-03 — — — 63,504.42 +0.06% 15,928,756,966
2026-08-02 — — — 62,772.58 -1.15% 13,867,068,847
2026-08-01 — — — 62,820.09 +0.08% 29,578,746,589
2026-07-31 — — — 64,743.34 +3.06% 26,380,169,354
2026-07-30 — — — 63,916.60 -1.28% 28,201,903,974
2026-07-29 — — — 63,881.94 -0.05% 24,427,415,031
2026-07-28 — — — 63,701.35 -0.28% 25,830,118,462
2026-07-27 — — — 65,343.82 +2.58% 14,859,985,104
2026-07-26 — — — 64,318.25 -1.57% 14,475,620,140
2026-07-25 — — — 64,092.65 -0.35% 26,949,656,279
2026-07-24 — — — 65,052.48 +1.50% 25,573,855,467
2026-07-23 — — — 66,077.06 +1.58% 28,939,202,566
2026-07-22 — — — 66,520.98 +0.67% 30,875,118,859
2026-07-21 — — — 65,184.92 -2.01% 32,520,098,296
2026-07-20 — — — 64,670.40 -0.79% 16,372,745,608
2026-07-19 — — — 64,795.70 +0.19% 15,451,966,881
2026-07-18 — — — 63,904.95 -1.37% 28,871,351,366
2026-07-17 — — — 63,792.29 -0.18% 27,825,917,044
2026-07-16 — — — 64,717.17 +1.45% 28,397,592,354
2026-07-15 — — — 64,983.52 +0.41% 32,016,409,409
2026-07-14 — — — 62,278.96 -4.16% 31,361,911,543
2026-07-13 — — — 63,746.66 +2.36% 19,015,013,214
2026-07-12 — — — 63,791.35 +0.07% 14,235,365,170
2026-07-11 — — — 64,110.97 +0.50% 27,782,860,992
2026-07-10 — — — 63,192.88 -1.43% 26,707,343,178
2026-07-09 — — — 62,247.13 -1.50% 27,882,580,909
2026-07-08 — — — 63,335.31 +1.75% 31,452,448,064
2026-07-07 — — — 64,001.24 +1.05% 36,365,921,503
2026-07-06 — — — 63,586.10 -0.65% 18,666,512,399
2026-07-05 — — — 63,088.41 -0.78% 19,151,546,833
2026-07-04 — — — 62,553.61 -0.85% 26,816,869,527
2026-07-03 — — — 61,490.21 -1.70% 40,481,809,941
2026-07-02 — — — 59,967.69 -2.48% 39,101,214,529
2026-07-01 — — — 58,566.09 -2.34% 32,381,442,095
2026-06-30 — — — 60,152.36 +2.71% 32,075,473,636
2026-06-29 — — — 59,494.61 -1.09% 17,361,816,170
2026-06-28 — — — 59,953.44 +0.77% 16,056,335,656
2026-06-27 — — — 60,022.33 +0.11% 39,614,814,582
2026-06-26 — — — 59,726.74 -0.49% 41,007,492,811
2026-06-25 — — — 60,989.57 +2.11% 43,171,393,361
2026-06-24 — — — 62,662.29 +2.74% 30,689,271,786
2026-06-23 — — — 63,937.29 +2.03% 27,569,840,545
2026-06-22 — — — 63,255.49 -1.07% 16,915,246,358
2026-06-21 — — — 64,253.40 +1.58% 18,855,396,682
2026-06-20 — — — 63,489.81 -1.19% 23,645,282,131
2026-06-19 — — — 62,897.24 -0.93% 30,204,028,641
2026-06-18 — — — 64,444.55 +2.46% 31,384,852,552
2026-06-17 — — — 65,619.28 +1.82% 25,251,031,908
2026-06-16 — — — 66,292.50 +1.03% 30,758,717,645
2026-06-15 — — — 65,709.31 -0.88% 21,124,197,393
2026-06-14 — — — 64,408.81 -1.98% 16,875,136,750
2026-06-13 — — — 63,532.28 -1.36% 26,198,317,555
2026-06-12 — — — 63,555.66 +0.04% 28,342,001,884
2026-06-11 — — — 61,480.14 -3.27% 26,327,022,780
2026-06-10 — — — 61,669.76 +0.31% 35,017,939,158
2026-06-09 — — — 63,069.15 +2.27% 32,495,793,038
2026-06-08 — — — 63,273.54 +0.32% 33,326,211,425
2026-06-07 — — — 60,855.25 -3.82% 31,010,313,650
2026-06-06 — — — 60,960.10 +0.17% 45,506,430,145
2026-06-05 — — — 63,810.66 +4.68% 60,995,145,201
2026-06-04 — — — 64,046.61 +0.37% 43,649,392,702
2026-06-03 — — — 66,727.26 +4.19% 61,786,877,126
2026-06-02 — — — 71,320.29 +6.88% 48,870,728,373
2026-06-01 — — — 73,598.67 +3.19% 16,617,912,638
2026-05-31 — — — 73,820.30 +0.30% 18,374,444,051
2026-05-30 — — — 73,500.92 -0.43% 38,828,038,485
2026-05-29 — — — 73,651.64 +0.21% 33,586,238,604
2026-05-28 — — — 74,339.62 +0.93% 34,389,389,567
2026-05-27 — — — 75,851.10 +2.03% 21,937,550,660
2026-05-26 — — — 77,258.40 +1.86% 19,879,317,349
2026-05-25 — — — 77,016.07 -0.31% 21,763,916,480
2026-05-24 — — — 76,684.37 -0.43% 30,932,098,861
2026-05-23 — — — 75,478.38 -1.57% 28,286,947,097
2026-05-22 — — — 77,550.38 +2.75% 26,822,828,450
2026-05-21 — — — 77,470.40 -0.10% 26,876,818,824
2026-05-20 — — — 76,758.73 -0.92% 27,147,623,318
2026-05-19 — — — 76,959.41 +0.26% 42,702,548,816
2026-05-18 — — — 77,428.52 +0.61% 20,316,786,826
2026-05-17 — — — 78,132.75 +0.91% 23,762,381,350
2026-05-16 — — — 79,068.67 +1.20% 36,216,900,889
2026-05-15 — — — 81,059.12 +2.52% 42,298,040,590
2026-05-14 — — — 79,288.84 -2.18% 32,707,131,747
2026-05-13 — — — 80,482.14 +1.51% 30,589,600,640
2026-05-12 — — — 81,627.57 +1.42% 28,389,853,562
2026-05-11 — — — 82,018.37 +0.48% 19,419,025,190
2026-05-10 — — — 80,677.65 -1.63% 17,383,014,967
2026-05-09 — — — 80,197.27 -0.60% 33,093,795,789
2026-05-08 — — — 80,024.91 -0.21% 36,710,760,520
2026-05-07 — — — 81,436.86 +1.76% 40,136,984,275
2026-05-06 — — — 80,913.96 -0.64% 39,631,525,763
2026-05-05 — — — 79,825.88 -1.34% 52,799,152,390
2026-05-04 — — — 78,512.09 -1.65% 21,039,106,932
2026-05-03 — — — 78,677.42 +0.21% 17,470,305,786
2026-05-02 — — — 78,207.76 -0.60% 38,346,005,218
2026-05-01 — — — 76,296.80 -2.44% 30,542,237,537
2026-04-30 — — — 75,784.96 -0.67% 40,874,217,836
2026-04-29 — — — 76,331.86 +0.72% 31,323,204,487
2026-04-28 — — — 77,366.78 +1.36% 36,623,099,927
2026-04-27 — — — 78,637.74 +1.64% 20,900,479,736
2026-04-26 — — — 77,634.52 -1.28% 16,174,475,761
2026-04-25 — — — 77,447.62 -0.24% 30,716,822,790
2026-04-24 — — — 78,275.33 +1.07% 35,972,701,648
2026-04-23 — — — 78,238.82 -0.05% 43,578,270,461
2026-04-22 — — — 76,326.19 -2.44% 36,823,423,505
2026-04-21 — — — 75,858.04 -0.61% 38,028,896,901
2026-04-20 — — — 73,841.02 -2.66% 57,237,273,536
2026-04-19 — — — 75,716.15 +2.54% 62,821,159,707
2026-04-18 — — — 77,125.73 +1.86% 56,342,990,648
2026-04-17 — — — 75,111.96 -2.61% 37,873,936,871
2026-04-16 — — — 74,826.31 -0.38% 30,548,536,737
2026-04-15 — — — 74,297.35 -0.71% 48,364,585,959
2026-04-14 — — — 74,481.64 +0.25% 46,453,393,067
2026-04-13 — — — 70,660.64 -5.13% 25,034,828,601
2026-04-12 — — — 73,021.86 +3.34% 20,344,402,242
2026-04-11 — — — 72,920.25 -0.14% 32,133,663,127
2026-04-10 — — — 71,367.80 -2.13% 41,307,213,904
2026-04-09 — — — 70,644.79 -1.01% 42,187,302,136
2026-04-08 — — — 71,661.76 +1.44% 59,114,621,689
2026-04-07 — — — 68,672.25 -4.17% 46,866,527,625
2026-04-06 — — — 69,002.04 +0.48% 23,859,752,470
2026-04-05 — — — 67,077.15 -2.79% 18,349,404,856
2026-04-04 — — — 66,822.55 -0.38% 27,881,704,293
2026-04-03 — — — 66,887.51 +0.10% 48,489,330,158
2026-04-02 — — — 67,959.88 +1.60% 48,409,464,466
2026-04-01 — — — 68,107.47 +0.22% 51,983,877,859
2026-03-31 — — — 66,691.27 -2.08% 34,064,201,546
2026-03-30 — — — 65,947.03 -1.12% 22,702,400,223
2026-03-29 — — — 66,388.84 +0.67% 21,059,002,641
2026-03-28 — — — 66,329.88 -0.09% 43,169,558,849
2026-03-27 — — — 68,727.21 +3.61% 45,867,404,479
2026-03-26 — — — 71,303.59 +3.75% 31,347,153,732
2026-03-25 — — — 70,528.86 -1.09% 32,603,022,085
2026-03-24 — — — 70,987.25 +0.65% 46,905,271,506
2026-03-23 — — — 67,933.43 -4.30% 25,352,216,481
2026-03-22 — — — 68,424.08 +0.72% 19,470,795,501
2026-03-21 — — — 70,526.29 +3.07% 32,603,143,141
2026-03-20 — — — 69,936.20 -0.84% 38,065,438,933
2026-03-19 — — — 71,220.05 +1.84% 39,350,060,118
2026-03-18 — — — 74,004.69 +3.91% 41,402,228,682
2026-03-17 — — — 74,679.37 +0.91% 46,895,173,927
2026-03-16 — — — 72,934.29 -2.34% 24,398,877,933
2026-03-15 — — — 71,149.28 -2.45% 20,019,694,460
2026-03-14 — — — 70,838.93 -0.44% 53,200,875,875
2026-03-13 — — — 70,417.19 -0.60% 35,693,537,178
2026-03-12 — — — 70,028.96 -0.55% 384,518,713
2026-03-11 — — — 69,849.20 -0.26% 45,913,537,651
2026-03-10 — — — 68,430.61 -2.03% 43,658,034,305
2026-03-09 — — — 66,042.75 -3.49% 30,233,312,686
2026-03-08 — — — 67,339.67 +1.96% 21,800,679,518
2026-03-07 — — — 68,142.88 +1.19% 39,123,856,299
2026-03-06 — — — 70,868.22 +4.00% 47,524,397,870
2026-03-05 — — — 72,752.30 +2.66% 73,011,893,269
2026-03-04 — — — 68,287.46 -6.14% 46,018,172,072
2026-03-03 — — — 68,815.94 +0.77% 54,357,544,833
2026-03-02 — — — 65,824.42 -4.35% 38,811,585,997
2026-03-01 — — — 67,017.08 +1.81% 41,709,946,432
2026-02-28 — — — 65,891.22 -1.68% 37,742,232,581
2026-02-27 — — — 67,496.84 +2.44% 39,031,524,535
2026-02-26 — — — 67,850.11 +0.52% 47,180,923,359
2026-02-25 — — — 64,073.55 -5.57% 41,350,119,554
04
Explainability

Why the model sees this scenario

Macroeconomic context

Federal Funds Effective Rate 2026-09-01
+0.2
Japan: IMF inflation outlook 2031-01-01
0.0

Company fundamentals

The structure is active and will fill progressively as validated sources become available.
View technical methodology
Model
MacroWatch Distribution & Regime Model v1.7.0
Sample size
563
Annualized volatility
+0.3%
Maximum drawdown
-0.5%
Daily VaR 95%
0.0%
Expected shortfall 95%
0.0%
Directional accuracy
42.3%
Interval coverage
76.9%
05
Connected intelligence

What affects this entity — and what it can affect

Connections are still being built

The structure is active and will fill progressively as validated sources become available.

06
Intelligence

Recent events and intelligence

No recent intelligence has been linked to this asset.

Probabilistic research output based on historical data. It is not investment advice, a promise of performance or a trading instruction.