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GOLD

Gold

commodity · USD · Alpha Vantage Extended EOD

4,152.44 USD -0.79% Last update 2026-10-01
Open—
High—
Low—
Previous close4,185.44
Volume—
Volatility+17.5%
01
Plain-language reading

Understand the situation before the technical details

What is happening now Observed from current data

The recent movement is currently under pressure

Negative Trend

TrendNegative
RegimeNegative trend
RiskHigh
Volatility+0.2%
What MacroWatch estimates next 30 days

The balance currently leans upward

Over the selected period, the model currently gives more weight to an upward move than to a downward move. Risk is high, which means the result can change quickly and the possible range is wide. The signals agree reasonably well, but this remains a probability, not a certainty.

Probable range 3,666.13 — 4,760.59 USD
Confidence 93%
See why MacroWatch reached this view ↓
How should a non-specialist read this?

A positive outlook does not mean “buy”, and a cautious outlook does not mean “sell”. It means the current data gives one direction more weight than the other. Open the details to see the risks, uncertainty and factors behind it.

02
Probabilistic analysis

Forecast details, probabilities and uncertainty

Expected range 3,666.13 — 4,760.59 USD · 30 days
3,666.13 4,199.15 4,760.59
Adverse scenario 35% 3,666.13 — 3,975.57
Central scenario 19% 3,975.57 — 4,422.74
Favourable scenario 46% 4,422.74 — 4,760.59
03
Market history

Price, range and source data

1M 3M 6M 1Y ALL
Date Open High Low Close Change Volume
2026-10-01 — — — 4,152.44 — —
2026-09-30 — — — 4,185.44 +0.79% —
2026-09-29 — — — 4,122.40 -1.51% —
2026-09-28 — — — 4,255.91 +3.24% —
2026-09-27 — — — 4,285.06 +0.69% —
2026-09-26 — — — 4,285.05 0.00% —
2026-09-25 — — — 4,267.03 -0.42% —
2026-09-24 — — — 4,288.23 +0.50% —
2026-09-23 — — — 4,365.11 +1.79% —
2026-09-22 — — — 4,371.40 +0.14% —
2026-09-21 — — — 4,364.99 -0.15% —
2026-09-20 — — — 4,378.38 +0.31% —
2026-09-19 — — — 4,378.45 +0.00% —
2026-09-18 — — — 4,353.66 -0.57% —
2026-09-17 — — — 4,283.81 -1.60% —
2026-09-16 — — — 4,282.47 -0.03% —
2026-09-15 — — — 4,285.38 +0.07% —
2026-09-14 — — — 4,345.90 +1.41% —
2026-09-13 — — — 4,348.21 +0.05% —
2026-09-12 — — — 4,349.07 +0.02% —
2026-09-11 — — — 4,318.89 -0.69% —
2026-09-10 — — — 4,395.97 +1.78% —
2026-09-09 — — — 4,351.83 -1.00% —
2026-09-08 — — — 4,416.56 +1.49% —
2026-09-07 — — — 4,426.01 +0.21% —
2026-09-06 — — — 4,429.95 +0.09% —
2026-09-05 — — — 4,429.91 0.00% —
2026-09-04 — — — 4,481.57 +1.17% —
2026-09-03 — — — 4,390.88 -2.02% —
2026-09-02 — — — 4,322.67 -1.55% —
2026-09-01 — — — 4,455.86 +3.08% —
2026-08-31 — — — 4,460.16 +0.10% —
2026-08-30 — — — 4,455.55 -0.10% —
2026-08-29 — — — 4,455.18 -0.01% —
2026-08-28 — — — 4,601.04 +3.27% —
2026-08-27 — — — 4,617.28 +0.35% —
2026-08-26 — — — 4,653.82 +0.79% —
2026-08-25 — — — 4,683.72 +0.64% —
2026-08-24 — — — 4,638.11 -0.97% —
2026-08-23 — — — 4,603.53 -0.75% —
04
Explainability

Why the model sees this scenario

Macroeconomic context

Federal Funds Effective Rate 2026-09-01
+0.2
China: IMF real GDP growth outlook 2031-01-01
-0.1
Japan: IMF inflation outlook 2031-01-01
+0.0

Company fundamentals

The structure is active and will fill progressively as validated sources become available.
View technical methodology
Model
MacroWatch Distribution & Regime Model v1.7.0
Sample size
563
Annualized volatility
+0.2%
Maximum drawdown
-0.3%
Daily VaR 95%
0.0%
Expected shortfall 95%
0.0%
Directional accuracy
10.7%
Interval coverage
100.0%
05
Connected intelligence

What affects this entity — and what it can affect

06
Intelligence

Recent events and intelligence

No recent intelligence has been linked to this asset.

Probabilistic research output based on historical data. It is not investment advice, a promise of performance or a trading instruction.