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SP500

S&P 500 Index

index · USD · FRED Market EOD

7,489.72 USD +0.70% Last update 2026-07-31
Open—
High—
Low—
Previous close7,437.63
Volume—
Volatility+12.2%
01
Plain-language reading

Understand the situation before the technical details

What is happening now Observed from current data

The recent movement is currently positive

Positive Trend

TrendPositive
RegimePositive trend
RiskModerate
Volatility+0.2%
What MacroWatch estimates next 7 days

The balance currently leans upward

Over the selected period, the model currently gives more weight to an upward move than to a downward move. The signals agree reasonably well, but this remains a probability, not a certainty.

Probable range 7,213.07 — 7,835.86 USD
Confidence 92%
See why MacroWatch reached this view ↓
How should a non-specialist read this?

A positive outlook does not mean “buy”, and a cautious outlook does not mean “sell”. It means the current data gives one direction more weight than the other. Open the details to see the risks, uncertainty and factors behind it.

02
Probabilistic analysis

Forecast details, probabilities and uncertainty

Expected range 7,213.07 — 7,835.86 USD · 7 days
7,213.07 7,528.79 7,835.86
Adverse scenario 29% 7,213.07 — 7,409.93
Central scenario 23% 7,409.93 — 7,647.65
Favourable scenario 48% 7,647.65 — 7,835.86
03
Market history

Price, range and source data

1M 3M 6M 1Y ALL
Date Open High Low Close Change Volume
2026-07-31 — — — 7,489.72 — —
2026-07-30 — — — 7,437.63 -0.70% —
2026-07-29 — — — 7,316.15 -1.63% —
2026-07-28 — — — 7,428.78 +1.54% —
2026-07-27 — — — 7,413.18 -0.21% —
2026-07-24 — — — 7,411.98 -0.02% —
2026-07-23 — — — 7,408.30 -0.05% —
2026-07-22 — — — 7,498.96 +1.22% —
2026-07-21 — — — 7,509.20 +0.14% —
2026-07-20 — — — 7,443.28 -0.88% —
2026-07-17 — — — 7,457.69 +0.19% —
2026-07-16 — — — 7,533.77 +1.02% —
2026-07-15 — — — 7,572.40 +0.51% —
2026-07-14 — — — 7,543.59 -0.38% —
2026-07-13 — — — 7,515.34 -0.37% —
2026-07-10 — — — 7,575.39 +0.80% —
2026-07-09 — — — 7,543.64 -0.42% —
2026-07-08 — — — 7,482.71 -0.81% —
2026-07-07 — — — 7,503.85 +0.28% —
2026-07-06 — — — 7,537.43 +0.45% —
2026-07-02 — — — 7,483.24 -0.72% —
2026-07-01 — — — 7,483.23 0.00% —
2026-06-30 — — — 7,499.36 +0.22% —
2026-06-29 — — — 7,440.43 -0.79% —
2026-06-26 — — — 7,354.02 -1.16% —
2026-06-25 — — — 7,357.49 +0.05% —
2026-06-24 — — — 7,358.22 +0.01% —
2026-06-23 — — — 7,365.46 +0.10% —
2026-06-22 — — — 7,472.79 +1.46% —
2026-06-18 — — — 7,500.58 +0.37% —
2026-06-17 — — — 7,420.10 -1.07% —
2026-06-16 — — — 7,511.35 +1.23% —
2026-06-15 — — — 7,554.29 +0.57% —
2026-06-12 — — — 7,431.46 -1.63% —
2026-06-11 — — — 7,394.30 -0.50% —
2026-06-10 — — — 7,266.99 -1.72% —
2026-06-09 — — — 7,386.65 +1.65% —
2026-06-08 — — — 7,405.73 +0.26% —
2026-06-05 — — — 7,383.74 -0.30% —
2026-06-04 — — — 7,584.31 +2.72% —
04
Explainability

Why the model sees this scenario

Macroeconomic context

India: Unemployment rate 2025-01-01
+0.3
Federal Funds Effective Rate 2026-09-01
+0.2
China: IMF real GDP growth outlook 2031-01-01
-0.1
Japan: IMF inflation outlook 2031-01-01
0.0

Company fundamentals

The structure is active and will fill progressively as validated sources become available.
View technical methodology
Model
MacroWatch Distribution & Regime Model v1.7.0
Sample size
563
Annualized volatility
+0.2%
Maximum drawdown
-0.2%
Daily VaR 95%
0.0%
Expected shortfall 95%
0.0%
Directional accuracy
—
Interval coverage
—
05
Connected intelligence

What affects this entity — and what it can affect

06
Intelligence

Recent events and intelligence

No recent intelligence has been linked to this asset.

Probabilistic research output based on historical data. It is not investment advice, a promise of performance or a trading instruction.